According to lesta energy, a Norwegian industry research organization, China Environment News reported that as of the end of March, many European countries had issued "closure" orders, requiring residents to stay at home as much as possible. Therefore, industrial, commercial and household electricity consumption is expected to decrease, and natural gas demand will also decrease.

At the end of 2019, the agency issued a forecast that the growth of natural gas demand in Europe this year is expected to reach 6 billion cubic meters, and the overall demand will grow to 560 billion cubic meters. However, according to the current "blockade" plan of European countries, the total consumption of natural gas in Europe is expected to be 556 billion cubic meters this year, down 4 billion cubic meters from the previous expectation, up only 0.36% year on year.

It is understood that in March April this year, European countries have taken different degrees of control measures. During this period, European natural gas demand will fall to 89.2 billion cubic meters from the previously estimated 93.3 billion cubic meters. Among them, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands, Spain and other countries are seriously affected by the epidemic, and the demand for natural gas has declined to varying degrees.

It is worth noting that Italy, which has suffered from a serious epidemic, first adopted the "closure" measures. Since March 10, Italy's natural gas consumption has declined by 12% compared with the same period last year, and its electricity demand has declined by 7%. Compared with the forecast released at the end of 2019, the agency believes that the more optimistic situation is that the "blockade" measures of other European countries are only implemented for two weeks, and the natural gas demand in Europe is expected to decrease by 1.8% during March April this year; if the "blockade" lasts for 30 days, the natural gas demand in this period is expected to decrease by about 4.4%.

According to the analysis, under the current market environment, natural gas prices may pick up after the winter of this year. On the whole, Asian natural gas buyers still have greater regasification capacity and can consume excess LNG capacity. At the same time, the price of natural gas has been able to compete with coal, which will effectively promote the elimination of coal power in some areas. With the intervention of Asian buyers, by the second quarter of this year, the price of natural gas in Europe is likely to stabilize at US $3 / mmbtu (about 30m3 for 1mbtu in the UK and the US).

Source: China Environmental News